Hurricane Erin Likely To Rapidly Strengthen This Weekend; Heavy Rain Threat In Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands Jennifer Gray August 15, 2025 at 10:45 PM Hurricane Erin became the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season Friday morning several hundred miles eastnortheast of the Caribbean, wh...
- - Hurricane Erin Likely To Rapidly Strengthen This Weekend; Heavy Rain Threat In Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands
Jennifer Gray August 15, 2025 at 10:45 PM
Hurricane Erin became the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season Friday morning several hundred miles east-northeast of the Caribbean, where it is expected to bring rain, gusty winds and high surf this weekend.
While Erin's longer-term future after the Caribbean is still somewhat uncertain, the National Hurricane Center is warning of the potential for rapid strengthening this weekend to Category 4 strength by Sunday or Monday.
Interests along the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda should continue to monitor the forecast. A significant rip current threat is expected in the week ahead from Florida to Massachusetts.
(MORE: Erin Maps Tracker - Spaghetti Models, Forecasts, More)
Watches And Warnings
Tropical storm watches have been issued for Anguilla, St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, Saba and St. Eustatius and Sint Maarten. This means that winds of 40-plus mph are possible within 48 hours.
Path, Intensity Forecast
Tropical Storm Erin is located several hundred miles east of the northern Leeward Islands.
Erin is turning toward the west-northwest as it strengthens. This path will take Erin toward progressively warmer waters, which, in tandem with low wind shear, should allow Erin to become a major hurricane this weekend as it makes a close brush, or travels just north of the Caribbean islands.
By early next week, Erin is expected to reach sustained winds up to 125 kts (Category 4 intensity) or even stronger, according to the latest from the National Hurricane Center.
Next week: Erin is expected to pass between North Carolina and Bermuda. Exactly where this happens remains uncertain, but Erin will eventually turn northeastward to the north of Bermuda.
Storm Info And Projected PathPotential Impacts
-Caribbean: The core of Erin is expected to pass just north of the northeast Caribbean islands, but some impacts are expected this weekend from Puerto Rico to Martinique.
In addition to high surf and dangerous rip currents, bands of heavy rain containing gusty winds could impact the northern Leeward Islands Friday night into this weekend. That includes the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Up to 6 inches of rain is possible locally in Puerto Rico.
Rainfall Forecast
-Bermuda, U.S. East Coast: This weekend into early next week is when this system will begin to turn more to the north between a developing break in high pressure. Where that turn occurs between the area of high pressure over the eastern U.S. and another one east of Bermuda is still uncertain and will determine what, if any, land areas might see impacts next week.
The probability of a landfall from Erin along the U.S. East Coast is low at this time. However, interests along the East Coast should continue to monitor this system for possible changes.
Erin will generate high surf and dangerous rip currents along the U.S. East Coast next week, no matter where it tracks.
Interests in Bermuda should also continue to follow Erin's forecast closely since its eventual turn toward the north and northeast might take it close to the archipelago next week. And parts of Atlantic Canada — particularly Newfoundland — should also follow this forecast closely, as Erin could end up tracking close to some of those areas late in the week ahead.
Check back to weather.com and The Weather Channel app in the coming days for updates as the forecast comes more into focus.
Jennifer Gray is a weather and climate writer for weather.com. She has been covering some of the world's biggest weather and climate stories for the last two decades.
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